Fuely · market intelligence unit
Hypothesis
In a niche emergency-service ad market, a campaign's hourly cost, impressions and clicks, read against its own normal pattern, reveal its live competitive position hours before conversions can. Lost impressions while spend holds means the auction or the ad is failing, or a rival is outbidding. Impressions held but clicks lost means a rival is sitting above you. A proportional fall in everything is the market going quiet, not defeat.
Thesis
A self-calibrating, per-campaign engine that turns these signals into one of five states every hour gives an urgent, actionable read of the market, like a ticker for ad position. It enables a budget decision in the hour it matters, instead of days later through conversion data. Each campaign is its own market with its own normal, so the level that counts as decimated for one is not the same as for another. Decimated is reserved for a genuine shut-out; the everyday "losing position" case is outranked. Winning is held back for when results hold at a lower cost, not merely when nothing is wrong. Ads run 06:00 to 21:30, so hours outside that window are off-air and are never rated.
Formulas
Hourly value Vh = this hour from the sheet (cost, clicks, impressions)
Balanced average A = average of the same hour on recent days (incl. this hour)
B = average of all hours so far today, up to and incl. this hour
MA = 0.5 x A + 0.5 x B
Ratio q = Vh / MA for impressions, clicks, spend (cost) (1.00 = on the average)
State (worst to best, first match wins)
DECIMATED q_impr <= 0.40 and q_clicks <= 0.55 and q_cost >= 0.70 (shut out while paying)
LOW DEMAND q_impr <= 0.65 and q_cost <= 0.60 (all down together: quiet)
OUTRANKED q_clicks <= 0.70, or q_impr <= 0.65 while q_cost >= 0.70 (losing the click or position)
WINNING q_impr,q_clicks >= 0.85 and q_cost <= 0.70 (same results, lower cost)
STABLE otherwise (around the moving average)
Score 0-100: decimated 0-20, outranked 20-42, low demand 42-58, stable 58-78, winning 78-100
Threat defeat pressure x impression share (see Competitor performance panel)
Daily = mean(active hours) Weekly (Thu->Wed) = mean(daily) Monthly = mean(daily)
What the five states mean
DecimatedOnly when truly shut out: impressions have collapsed while you are still paying. Ad disapproval, a broken page, or heavy outbidding. Act now: check ads and Quality Score, then bid or budget.
OutrankedThe everyday losing-position case. You are showing but the click goes to a rival above you, or your share is pushed down. Lift bid or ad rank.
Low demandEverything is down together. The market is quiet, nothing is wrong. Hold, do not overspend into thin demand.
StableHealthy and normal. Results are about where they should be for this hour, at a normal cost. The default good state, nothing to do.
WinningReally doing well: the same good results you would get at stable, but at a lower cost. You are efficient here. Scale budget to take more.
Glossary
Impressions (q)This hour's impressions as a fraction of the moving average for this hour. Below 1.00 means fewer than normal.
Clicks (q)This hour's clicks over the moving average. Clicks low while impressions hold means a rival above us is taking the click.
Spend (q)Cost over the moving average. It separates shut-out-while-paying (decimated) from market-quiet (low demand).
Threat indexA rival's defeat pressure (overlap x position-above, top-of-page weighted) gated by their impression share. Higher means a bigger threat to us.
Moving averageThe balanced baseline: half the same hour averaged across recent days, half today's running average up to this hour. Both include the current hour, so one odd reading cannot swing it.